Before You Say Yes, Ask What Happens Next

One lesson I learned after years of leading a destination marketing organization (DMO) is that the hardest decisions aren't always between a good idea and a bad idea. Those are usually fairly easy. The difficult decisions are often between a good idea and everything that happens after you say yes.

A community partner proposes a new event. It sounds promising. An elected official suggests a new tourism initiative. The concept has merit. Someone wants the DMO to take responsibility for a program that clearly benefits the destination. The first question is usually: Should we do this?
I've learned there's a better second question: And then what?

That's the essence of second-order thinking. Instead of looking only at the immediate result of a decision, we consider what that decision sets in motion. Suppose we agree to sponsor an event. That's the first-order decision. But what happens when five other organizations ask for the same support? Have we unintentionally created a new expectation? 

Suppose we take responsibility for a community program because no one else can manage it. What happens three years from now when everyone assumes it permanently belongs to the DMO? And what if we discount something to solve today's problem? Have we made it harder to charge full value tomorrow? Do we create an exception for one partner? What happens when another partner asks why the same exception doesn't apply to them? And then what? Those three words can save an organization from a surprising amount of trouble.

CEOs are often under pressure to make things happen. We are expected to solve problems, build partnerships and find ways to say yes. That's part of leadership. But leadership also requires understanding that every decision sends signals throughout an organization and a community.

People watch what we fund. They notice what we tolerate. They remember the exceptions we make. Today's accommodation can quietly become tomorrow's precedent.
This doesn't mean we become afraid to make decisions. Quite the opposite. Second-order thinking should make us more confident because we've considered more than the immediate outcome.

Before a major decision, I like questions such as: If this works exactly as planned, what happens next? Who else will want the same thing? What expectation are we creating? What additional staff time will this require? How will our partners react? What will this look like three years from now? And perhaps most importantly, if we say yes today, will we still want to be saying yes tomorrow?

Experience teaches you that decisions have echoes. The meeting ends. The vote is taken. The announcement goes out. Everyone moves on to the next issue. But the decision keeps moving. It travels through budgets, workloads, partnerships, expectations, and relationships. Sometimes the consequences don't become visible for months or years.

That's why I believe good CEOs don't simply ask whether a decision solves today's problem. They ask what problem it might create tomorrow. And then what?